God’s step-son?

It’s never easy to be forever overshadowed by someone throughout life. And when even after giving your best, you fall short, that feeling can be devastating. What can be worse? maybe having that feeling all over again.

Stan Wawrinka, the Swiss no.2, forever in the shadow of arguably the best, but certainly the most successful player ever, Roger Federer, has had a decent career, by any yardstick. He has been a former top 10 player, is a current top 20, has made 2 slam quarters, has wins over Andy Murray, Andy Roddick and Roger Federer, among others and has won the doubles gold at Olympics (with none other than Roger Federer), but he would always remain known as second fiddle to Roger, a role he at times despises, given what we read from his pressers. There have been moments when he has been playing exceptional, until he ran into Roger Federer (everywhere) and Rafael Nadal (on clay) and his progress has been halted. A lot was attributed to his lack of belief. Stan the man possesses a deceptively good serve, good hands at the net and the most powerful one-handed backhand in the game.

When this year the draw was announced for the 1st slam at AO, he was slated to meet world no.1 Novak Djokovic in the 4th round, in what was billed to be a routine match for the defending champ. Some tennis writers even predicted a 2nd/3rd round for Wawrinka. But what was witnessed was a ruthless start, where if someone wasn’t aware of the tennis who’s who, would have presumed that the world no.1 was an outsider fighting a favourite in Wawrinka.

After winning the first 6-1 and leading 5-2 in the second, he lost the 2nd (inexplicably) and 3rd sets. A familiar story for the man, noted to have a fragile mental fortitude by many. But what followed was a fightback which even Novak would not have imagined. not only did he win the 4th set in a tiebreak, he raised his level in the 5th such that Novak was finding tough to keep pace on his favourite courts. On the brink of breaking Novak at 4-4, 30-40, he hit an astounding forehand return which Novak could barely keep in. The ball was called out. He thought of challenging, but having only 1 challenge at that point, he consulted the umpire, who told him that he thought that the call was correct. God had taken sides again. Stan the man got unlucky. He kept fighting but never got to a breakpoint again and ultimately lost 12-10 in the 5th.

Earlier this year, Wawrinka had expressed displeasure at Roger’s decision to not take part in round 1 of Davis Cup. He said (or was translated as saying) that he could not understand Roger. Though I admit it was disappointment speaking, but for Roger it was a very sensible decision in order to give himself the best chance to strike a balance between match play, practice and rest. But now, here was Wawrinka, heading the Swiss team against defending champions Czech Republic, knowing that his 100% might still not be enough. Deadlocked at 1-1 after singles, the crucial doubles match went the distance. Serving 2nd in another classic, Wawrinka with Chiudinelli, saved a whopping 11 match points, including being down 0-40 and 15-40 on serve, each time serving bombs, going for courageous play, believing it was his chance this time. He was wrong, as hard as they fought, ultimately, the pressure of serving 2nd got to Chiudinelli, and he double faulted on the 1st matchpoint he had to face on his serve.
And with that was gone the chance to, for atleast once, step out of the shadow of big brother. For 2nd time in 2 weeks he had given a match his all, fought a dog fight and ended up on the losing end.

Roger Federer has been god-gifted with a great playing style, health and opportunities, which he has taken with both hands, but Wawrninka, despite his best efforts and constant endevours – changes of coach, and sacrifices – it was reported that he left his wife and child, for a period of 5 years, to concentrate on maximising his potential of his remaining tennis career, he has always had to finish short. At seven hours and 1 minutes, this was the longest match ever contested without breaks (longest doubles and 2nd longest tennis match ever). As Wawrinka acknowledged crowd cheers raising his hand, and a lump in his throat, he knew he had lost another chance, or maybe luck had given him a raw deal one more time. If Roger was God-gifted, he must wonder if he is God’s step child? Would it turn for the better, would he use this shattering defeats to build on, rather than moan and gloat over, we will know as the year unfolds, but I would tell you that having Wawrinka in his side of draw won’t make any top seed comfortable.

17 going on 32 & final preview

The semis provided 2 contrasting matches – A blowout and a near classic. I will review the Federer-Murray semi and then go on to preview the final.

While I admit predicting is one difficult job, I think I did reasonably well this time, Nole in 3 and the 2nd semi going 5, though, the result of the 2nd one was not what I predicted, for those who saw the semi, would admit, that it was more of Murray playing at a level we have rarely seen, rather than Federer disappointing. Also, I predicted that a good start is more crucial to Federer in this match.

To start with, Murray served out of his mind, while Federer’s serving was slightly below par, especially in alternate sets. This was a match of swinging fortunes, but what was constant was Murray’s excellent serving. When Federer analyzed he had a lot less looks during Murray’s service games this match than usual, he was right. Murray served close to 70% first serves and placed his serves well. What was more impressive was that he had 21 aces (16 in 1st 3 sets) and no doubles. Very rarely do we see Federer outserved, even against the biggest of the servers, but yesterday it happened.

There were key moments in the match:

Federer’s slow start: Often, after a long match, you tend to start slow (happened to Novak at AO12 final) and Murray was very sharp, 1 break was enough to get a set.

3rd set lapse: Though Murray was serving better for most of the 1st 2 sets, Federer was getting better progressively, but serving at 2-3 in 3rd inexplicably made some strange decisions at 40-30, a drop shot which Murray tracked easily and hit for a winner, then a FH error and Murray took his 1st chance to break. It was against the run of play and extremely costly.

5th set meltdown: We have seen this earlier: Roger losing the 5th set at 6-2 against a hot opponent (Nadal and Del Potro), and it happened again. I wonder sometimes, if Federer starts thinking way forward and gets carried away in some matches, which is my interpretation of his total fade in 2009 AO final after handsomely winning the 4th. Today after inspired win in the 4th, breaking Andy when he was serving for the match, he went away in the 5th. But this day I think he was beginning to tire while Murray, who had a dream draw, was very much fitter. Federer after all, is going on 32 and playing his 10th set in 3 days must have taken its toll. His quest for the 18th slam at the AO ended, but he should be satisfied with his performance.

It was an extremely impressive win for Andy, probably his best in slams. His growth as a player as well his increased maturity is commendable and I think Lendl deserves some credit. While Murray fans and Federer critics, are jumping the bandwagon saying that Murray has become better than Federer now, it is still debatable in my opinion. Still Federer would need different tactics while facing Murray on slow HCs, especially chipping less returns and hitting more topspin backhands, even if it means some more errors. The chipped return bounces higher on these courts ( then they would at Wimbledon & USOpen) & gives Andy instant control of the point. Also, he would need to serve better. one thing is for sure.. the serve will be a big variable in future clashes between the two..

Final preview:

Djokovic and Murray have extremely similar games, which makes their matches difficult to predict. Both have had a tough match each, but sailed through the rest of the draw. Murray had the easier draw and I think both have peaked at the right time.

There are a few factors to be considered:

– Fatigue factor: Fatigue should not be an issue for upto 4 sets but if the match goes to a 5th, the long and emotionally draining semi could come to haunt Murray.

– Court speed: Both players have played their best tennis on slow to medium HCs, so it should provide an ideal platform for a great match. Djokovic is the 2 time defending champion, so he should have a slight edge, but like their semi last year, there could be very little to choose between the 2.

comparing the strengths: Both are excellent returners, Murray has an edge on serve, but Novak’s 2nd serve is better, so Murray needs to replicate his high serving percentage of the semi in order to win. Murray is also slightly better at the net. Mentally, Murray has come a long way, but there is no one like Djokovic currently in terms of sheer will to win.

An overlooked stat: In last year’s Shanghai final there was a stat displayed, that Novak usually needs to run much more in his matches vs Murray compared to any other opponent, which was also true of their AO semi and the USO final. Perhaps that explains Djokovic being spent in the 5th set at USO.

Intangibles: While Novak has had a bad match, the closest Murray came to having an off day was against Berankis. While it is entirely possible for Novak to have an off day, I reckon Andy is a little bit more likelier going by law of probability and given the intensity of the last match. Another factor is that Murray has nothing to lose and is under no pressure, while Novak, if he loses, will hold no slam and would have lost the last 2 slams to a man who could be his career rival. Moreover he is trying to become the 1st man to win 3 straight AOs and join Federer and Agassi as the one to win max AO crowns (4). Definitely he has more on the line.

With all of the above considered, while it is not entirely impossible for Murray to give another flawless performance and win this, I believe Novak would thrive under pressure, his level has been getting higher over the last 2 matches and even if Murray brings his best, I think Novak is still the better player on these courts and definitely the best big match player currently. I expect Novak to win his 4th and create history in 4 tight sets.

A redemption and semis preview.

The Federer Tsonga match had a lot of shades of the 2011 Wimbledon quarterfinal, which Tsonga won from 2 sets down. In that match Federer started well breaking Tsonga to go up 2-0, won the 1st set, went on to win the 2nd in a tiebreak, but after the 1st service game, never got to breakpoint on the Tsonga serve while getting his serve broken early in the last 3 sets. For much of the first 2 sets, it seemed a reprise, Federer broke early, held on for a while, but lost serve, then won the 1st in a tiebreak, then lost serve in the 2nd and was unable to convert his breakpoints. Tsonga was growing in confidence as he leveled by winning the 2nd set. When Federer lost serve after breaking in the 3rd, it seemed that lightning could strike twice, that Tsonga could join Berdych in upsetting Federer twice in a slam QF. Federer held on to win another tiebreak, but Tsonga seemed much stronger in the 4th. We were in the decider, with Federer looking susceptible.
In my match preview, I had written that Federer needs to keep it simple, protect his service games, and he will get opportunities on Tsonga serve. It wasn’t easy today with Tsonga reading serve well. But Federer did that and more in the 5th. Finding himself in a similar situation as the Wimbledon QF of 2011, he was more aggressive this time, he did not wait for Tsonga’s level to drop (which evidently happened), but went for his shots. Part of the process was protecting his own serve and part was being aggressive when receiving serve. In doing so, he has redeemed in part 1 of his more disappointing losses. At 3 hour 30 min, this match should not take too much out of Roger and should hold him in good stead. As for Tsonga, there were many positives from this tournament and this match in particular. He is a rare breed of aggressive players in today’s men’s game and is hugely popular. So if he maximises his potential it will be great for the game. Especially at Wimbledon, he can be dangerous. The match had both players going to net over 50 times each, and winning a majority of the forays, which is indeed heartening.

As I write this Li Na has dispatched Sharapova in easy 2 sets. I expected Li to win after her defeat of Radwanska, but this was a blowout and not on expected lines. Maria on her part had too many unforced errors, and her inferior court coverage (to Li) was exposed woefully.

Azarenka vs Stephens: Though Stephens is quick on court and has a great forehand, I do not think she is quite ready to follow a huge a upset with another. Azarenka is solid and won’t beat herself and I believe she wins in close 2 sets.

Djokovic vs Ferrer: What does Ferrer do to beat Novak? When you look at the head to head of the 2 players, it is a surprisingly respectable 4-9 deficit for Ferrer, but the telling stat is that Novak has won the last 4 and is 5-1after beginning his domination of men’s tour (with only loss being against an injured Novak at YEC 2011). Ferrer needs to play more aggressive, make the match physical, protect his serve and attack the opponent’s serve. Easier said than done. He needs an off day from Novak to have a chance, at the level of their QF matches, Novak should be in his 3rd straight final in 3 straight sets.

Federer vs Murray: Due to ATP (and slam’s) bizarre draws, Federer and Murray never met in slams as Murray almost always drew Nadal and Federer drew Djokovic (the statistical probability of which happening 17 out of 20 times is minuscule), now they are drawn into semis every single time since Nadal is missing, irrespective if Federer is ranked 1 or 2.
These 2 produced the best match of 2012 in the Wimbledon final in terms of quality, and have traded matches since then. Murray winning in Olympics and Shanghai, while Federer won in the YEC.  What makes this special is that it is the 1st match of the 2 after Murray has won his 1st slam. I expect a close match.
What goes for Murray:
– Slower hard courts at Australia in night matches, are perfect for Murray’s game.
– Well rested, he has hardly broken sweat in his last 2 matches and the tournament overall. That coupled with his 6 year advantage and great conditioning could be a factor in a long match.
– More aggressive now with Lendl and like in the Wimbledon final, can take the game to Roger.
– A positive H2H vs Roger (10-9) and knows he can beat Roger.
What goes for Federer:
– He has played most of his matches in night session, so he should be more tuned to the conditions and that could be a factor early on.
– Though he played the longer QF, the lack of a quality match could hurt Murray, who would certainly be required to raise his level.
– He still has more gears to his game, and if in full flight he knows he can beat anyone.
– He still has a 3-0 record at slams vs Murray (and though he lost a best of 5 set match at Olympics), he should feel confident that he can replicate that success.
On paper, Murray would seem a slight favourite on this surface, but I would expect Roger to play an aggressive match (not unlike his WImbledon final win) and in a match of ups and down, outlast Murray in 5.
All said, I believe another hard court final between the 2 best hard courters of last 10 years is long overdue (1st and only was 2007 US open). So my picks are Roger and Novak for the final.

An epic letdown and QF previews

As I write this review 2 QF (1 each in men’s and ladies singles) have completed. The 3rd is in progress.

Just a couple of days ago we witnessed a match which would probably go down as the best match of this year’s AO, today we had a match which would probably be a contendar for the worst. David Ferrer beat Nicolas Almagro for a 13th consecutive time. But what makes it worst is that Almagro who outplayed Ferrer for most of 1st 4 sets, served for the match an unbelievable 3 times (once in 3rd set and twice in 4th set). Almagro’s serving, powerful Single handed bnackhand and great breakpoint conversion (he was 6 out of 6 at 1 point and ended with not too shabby 7 out of 10) were key to his best performance yet vs his countryman. But in the end he just could not land the knock out punch. At 5-4 in both sets and again 6-5 in 4th, he failed to even get a matchpoint. He was also a break up 3 different times in 4th set. It was an epic letdown. The question is: should we credit Ferrer for the fight? I am inclined to say no. If he kept losing his serve at crucial times, it was not his fight, but the lack of killer instinct (or belief or a combination of the 2) from his opponent which saved the day for him. And this makes me feel this was a highly forgettable match.

Li Na dispatched Radwanska in the first quarterfinal of the day and was quite impressive. She learned from her loss to Aggie in Sydney where she was lobbed again and again when in great positions and was unimpressive in hitting overheads. This time she was ready for it and put Radwanska away. I think Radwanska relies too much on other’s mistakes while she mixes up things, but Li was pretty consistent today. Her match with Sharapova (should she win, she is already a set up) should be interesting.

Now on to short previews:
Novak vs Berdych: The question would be how well has Novak recovered in under 2 days. He has dominated the rivalry and is undefeated on HCs. But Tomas has hit a rich vein of form this AO and last year played a great QF vs Nadal where he should have been 2 sets up (but lost the 2nd in tiebreaker). Should Novak feel tired (I think he started stiff in last year’s AO final which cost him the 1st set), and Tomas is on top of his game, we could be in for the shock of the tournament. I do not believe it will happen, after a slow start Novak should steady his ship and win in 4.

Sharapova is a already a set and break up, so won’t preview it.

Andy Murray vs Jeremy Chardy: I had Andy losing in quarters to Del Po, but since Del Potro was bounced in 3rd round, Andy starts a huge favourite. Chardy has had a win over Murray last year and was also impressive in following up his upset with a solid performance against Seppi. Andy is confident and well rested as Simon was spent even before their 4th round match started. If the Chardy of previous 2 rounds shows up, we might have a close match (Andy did not look particularly sharp vs Berankis), but I expect Chardy to blow hot and cold and Andy to take it in 4.

Serena vs Sloane Stephens: Stephens has played well and also had a decent match with Serena before AO, however, Serena is in imperious form. Tough to see her losing a set this tournament.

Azarenka vs Kuznetsova: Kuznetsova beat Wozniacki in a close match, I think Azarenka does most things a bit better than Wozniacki, and hence should beat Kuznetsova in 3.

Federer vs Tsonga: Federer has lost to Tsonga before at a slam, and so would be vary of the shotmaker. He needs to do exactly what he did in his 2 previous matches, protect his serve and wait to get an opening in the opponent’s service games. Against Tsonga, he will get more looks at the serve and he should look to mix it up. Tsonga, when in full flow can be virtually unplayable (As Federer discovered in 2011 Wimbledon and Nadal at AO 2008), but he also has a tendency to self destruct with strange shot selection. Tsonga may win a tiebreak, but Federer should prevail comfortably.

Del Potro shocked, Federer-Tomic preview

Honestly never saw this one coming… trashes my draw prediction.. Will need to have a separate week 2 preview. Predicting sports is sometimes difficult 🙂

Tomic has been cocky in his press conferences, his confidence mostly soaring on the basis of his Hopman cup win over Novak and 1st tour title. So let us analyze how he can hurt Federer.

Tomic is serving well, but Federer has handled big servers extremely well during the course of his career. Still a great 1st serve percentage (70%) would be the key. Can he hit through Federer, like Berdych did in US Open 2012? Difficult to do, particularly on the relatively slower AO courts (some players have suggested the courts are playing a touch faster this year)

Tomic may appear slow but he rarely is out of position, but when comparing him to top guys, I do not think he is capable of playing defense like the players who trouble Federer. On this day he has to run like a rabbit and retrieve everything. Can he do it? I have my doubts.

Another tactic which Tomic uses well vs. rest of the field is to use his slice to offset the opponent, doing that would make him fall straight in the hands of Roger, as Roger’s slice is excellent as well & his court awareness is probably the best in history. If anything, Tomic has to employ a lot of variety and use slice as a surprise weapon and not the primary weapon.

All said, in order for Tomic to have a chance, I think Roger needs to be off his game a bit. Given the pre-match hype, I expect him to be dialled in from the go. He might have some lapses, but should prevail in 4.

AO13 round 2 recap & round 3 preview

The round 2 did not provide any surprises on men’s side but provided some in the women’s section.

Shock of R2: Kvitova’s loss to Robson was not surprising given her recent form, but once again raises question mark on Kvitova’s fitness and her continued failure to capitalize on her talent.

Untouchable so far: Maria Sharapova, 24 games won, 0 games lost. Next up is Venus Williams.  Should be the best match of R3 on women’s side. I give slight edge to Sharapova on these courts particularly as it is likely to be a night match where the AO courts play slower. Sharapova might lose more than just a few games though, I predict a 3 set win for Maria.

The entertainer is back: Tsonga is again on song, and is enjoying it. I predicted a 4th round exit for Tsonga, but that could change if he has the crowd cheering for him. The guy loves putting up a show.

Top 3 reign supreme: The top 3 on either side have been in imperious form, all not losing a single set between them. Federer faces Tomic in the marquee match of round 3. We will know if Tomic can match his tongue with a performance as sharp, but signs are if Roger and Tomic play at the level of R2, I don’t see Tomic win more than a set.

Novak has been supremely confident and I believe he has learned from his past year’s struggles that he needs to win the early rounds as quickly as possible. Stepanek is an able competitor, but on the AO courts I do not give much of a chance of an upset against Nole. A hot day match would suit Stepanek’s game slightly better so I think Novak should win in 4.

Andy has a great draw and should sweep Berankis.

Loose cannon: I wrote I was impressed with the calm showed by Jerzy Janowicz (JJ), given his self confessed lose temper of past. But he let a bad call on set point affect him so bad that he let it out and also put off his game for a another set. He faces the consistent Almagro next, I predicted either Dimitrov or JJ to reach 2nd week, looks difficult but I will stick with the upset pick JJ over Niko.

Tough to pick match: Monfils vs Simon could go either way as the former is a great shotmaker and the latter is very consistent, I go with consistency in 5, but it is likely to be an exciting match with lots of momentum swings.

Potential upsets: Benneteau over Tipsarevic. Benneteau when his game is on, can be tough to handle. He nearly knocked off Federer from Wimbledon last year. Tipsarevic has played well thus far and should guard against a potential upset.

Australian Open 2013 day 2 round up

Falling seed of the day: Serena Williams, who had a bad fall in the 1st set but still completed a double bagel win.

Performance of the day: Not often when Federer steamrolls a young gun, or Andy Murray is in full flight, that someone else gets the most dominant performance of the day. But Del Potro did just that, annihilating French Mannarino. If both continue in this form, Andy-Juan QF looks even more delicious.

Warning of the day: Tomic backed up his verbal volleys to Federer with a commanding performance. With the seeded Klizan failing at first hurdle, he would already be discussing Federer with his team, before 2nd round match itself. Federer, on the other hand, has more dangerous Davydenko to face before thinking of Tomic.

Pleasant surprise of the day: Tsonga’s good form on return from injury in a surprisingly one-sided win over the dangerous Llodra.

Redemptions of the day: Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki were both handed tough 1st round matches. Both rose up to the task in beating Schiavone and Lisicki, respectively.

Entertaining match of the day: Monfils beat the seeded Dolgopolov, in a highly entertaining 4 setter. Monfils’ return, after long layoff should encourage Rafa.

Finally another win: After the magical 5 set win over Rafa, all the time I tracked Lukas Rosol, I saw him losing a match. Finally, he won a match and now faces Raonic, in what promises to be a highly entertaining 2nd round. If Rosol turns up in Wimbledon form, Raonic could have his hands full.

Disappointment of the day: Tommy Haas losing a tough five setter to Niemenen. Another beautiful 1 handed backhand losing (Dimitrov was the other), Onto Roger to redeem the 1 hander.

Australian Open 2013 day 1 round up.

The problem with predicting matches involving upcoming talent or a past champions, is that you tend to extrapolate the potential promised, or displayed in the past, and you never know what to expect. So you are more likely to go wrong when predicting their matches.. It’s only day 1 and 2 of my predictions have gone way wrong.

Disappointment of the day #1: Grigor Dimitrov. Starting with a 3-0 lead, Dimitrov lost 12 of next 15 games, in a straight sets loss to Julien bennetteau. A good couple of rounds would have consolidated the Brisbane runner up finish, where he played very well. Moreover, he had beaten Benneteau both times they had played, so for me it was unexpected. Disappointing for a tennis fan.

Disappointment of the day #2: Hewitt’s straight set loss to Tipsarevic, after beating berdych, Del Potro and Raonic in Kooyang (perhaps that’s why it is an exhibition). Again Hewitt had a good head to head vs Tipsy, but this loss has more to do with growth in maturity of Tipsarevic as much about signalling end of the road for Hewitt.

Not there yet: David Goffin. Another youngster, another loss. But this time it was a close match against former top 10 regular Fernando Verdasco. Goffin has a small frame and like David Ferrer might need to develop quick feet and unparalleled stamina to maximize his talent. Work in progress!

Surprise of the day: Somdev Devverman winning a match against Bjorn Phau, ranked about 500 places above him in rankings.

Surprise of the day #2: Almagro dropping 2 tiebreakers to Johnson, a 175th ranked qualifier. Perhaps he is ripe for upset (Jerzy, are you ready?)

Reinforcing the belief: Jerzy Janowicz. There were questions raised if he can do well outdoors. In that sense, his match with Simone Bolelli was a must win for him. He already has a 3rd round at Wimbledon but lost 1st round at US open and also his 1st match of the year at Sydney. With a straight sets win and a pending match vs qualifier Somdev (ranked 500+) in round 2, he could already start thinking about a 3rd round match vs Almagro. JJ showed he has the right attitude and calmness on court, now he needs a few good wins at majors. I will be closely following him through the year.

Not-quite-upset of the day: 11th ranked Monaco, coming from injury was not expected to go far. His loss wasn’t surprising but scoreline of 6-7,1-6,1-6 to Kuznetsov was.

Comeback of the day: Radek Stepanek’s back from2 set down win over Victor Troicki. Stepanek is the better competitor, as shown by the Davis Cup clinching win over Almagro in 2012. Sadly for Trocki, his own Davis Cup clinching win in 2010 will always remain a personal high, as well as a flash in the pan.

Australian open 2013 preview and picks

When the draw was picked for Australian Open, the biggest question was which side would Murray land up on. For a casual fan, there was an even chance that Murray could draw Either Roger or Novak in semi, but to a tennis follower, it is apparent that Roger Federer was more likely to draw Andy Murray, the reason for this and dynamics of the draw, is subject for another article. Right now I will focus on the draw and try to pick the winner of each quarter, then the winner and runner up.

Quarter 1 : By now we must be comfortable watching Novak’s name at the top of the draw. Novak is the man to beat in any hard court championship these days, but particularly at AO, he is a big favourite. Djokovic has a reasonable draw and should not have any reason to lose more than a set (if at all) reaching the quarters. He starts with Frenchman Mathieu, then gets flamboyant (but overrated) Harrison in 2nd, then veteran Stepanek in 3rd, Wawrinka in 4th.

In the other section of the quarter, Berdych has a gimme draw and only challenge he would have before facing Djokovic in quarters, would come from 11th seeded Monaco in the 4th. Djokovic has manhandled Berdych in most of their encounters, but despite a poor start to the year, I expect berdych to warm up and get in top form by the 2nd week aided by a favourable draw. Expect Berdych to start hot and take the game to Djokovic, but the champion should prevail in a tense 4 setter.

semifinalist: Djokovic

Quarter 2: The biggest beneficiary of Nadal’s absence would be Ferrer, who by virtue of 4th seeding, not only avoids the other top 3 till semis, but also has an enviable draw. Starting with Rochus, he gets an ageing Karlovic in the 2nd. Things could get tricky but still manageable in 3rd round with Baghdatis, who loves the Australian open and is a crowd favourite. The winner of the match likely faces Nishikori or Youzhny in the 4th. Nishikori has less weapons than a top 5 player should possess, so I think he is overrated when viewed as future of tennis by some, though he might surprise me. I see Ferrer safely in quarters.

The 2nd section of the quarter is the most interesting for me and could provide the best early round matchups. Tipsarevic starts with Hewitt, which is my upset pick for round 1. Another sumptious 1st rounder will pit Benneteau vs. Dimitrov, the 21 year old who made his 1st ATP final in Brisbane. The winner of Benneteau-Dimitrov clash should make it all the way to 4th round  as I expect whoever wins in Hewitt-Tipsarevic to have little left in tank after that match and another. Almagro could face Jerzy Janowicz (JJ) in round 3, though JJ is yet to achieve anything worthwhile on outdoor HC. A personal wish would be Dimitrov vs Janowicz showdown in 4th round, and winner beating Ferrer to reach the semis, possible but highly improbable.

semifinalist: Ferrer

Quarter 3: Murray has a draw which enables him to get comfortable and work his way into the tournament (if at all he needed the favour of draw). His 1st minor challenge could come from Dolgopolv in 3rd round, who should beat returning Monfils in the earlier round. Then Murray would face a man he has beaten easily 9 straight times. I have lot of respect for Simon’s game and he could give a serious scare to Andy in the 4th round.

The other section of the quarter has Del Potro with similarly comfortable path and only challenge should come from Cilic in the 4th, which would still be dealt with easily. In likely the most compelling quarterfinal of the lot, I expect Del Potro to take the next step towards becoming a serious slam contendar by giving Murray all he can handle and probably more. A day match would suit Murray, who has tremendous fitness, but Del Potro has worked his way to fitness last year, and I think he is ready to stand up and be counted. I pick the upset in my pick for the match of the tournament.

Semifinalist: Del Potro

Quarter 4: Roger Federer has odds stacked heavily against him, if he is to become the 1st man to win 5 Australian Opens. Not only did he draw Murray in the semis, he also got a minefield of a draw. He begins with talented Frenchman Benoite paire, but the real danger looms starting from 2nd round upto 4th. He faces Davydenko, who seems to be on upswing yet again, and always tends to play his best tennis at the start of year. Expect a cracker of a contest as the 2 already have had some close matches at AO. Roger is fresher of the 2 but Davydenko could start hotter, being more match ready. Davy’s fitness is still questionable as evident in the Doha final vs. Gasquet. Next up could be Tomic (though Klizan is the seeded player), who has started the year on fire, as he seems to have regained his motivation, expect a tighter match than the one last year, and an upset cannot be ruled out completely. Next up could be Raonic, who has had a disastrous start to the year, or Kohlschreiber, who has been consistent

The other section is up for grabs as Tsonga would be returning from injury and could face Llodra in 1st and Bellucci in 3rd. If he is still not 100%, I expect Tommy Haas-Gasquet 3rd round winner to take out Tsonga in 4th.

Federer has not lost before the quarters in ages, this draw is probably one of the toughest 1st week on paper, in a long time for any top player, though I still feel he will maintain his QF streak and  beats Gasquet in the quarters.

Semifinalist: Federer.

SF1: Novak over Ferrer in straights

SF2: Del Potro beats a spent Federer

Winner: Djokovic in another epic 5 setter, with crowd madly cheering for Del Potro..