Wimbledon 2014 draw review and picks..

Djokovic failed to win Roland Garros as I anticipated, and unfortunately wasn’t 100% in the finals. It makes you marvel even more what Nadal has been doing year in & year out at the French, despite the demanding clay conditions. Like Roger said, hats off!

Now on to grass and Novak is seeded 1, for reasons I already explained in the previous post. I look at the 4 quarters and then at the top 4 and try to analyze who has the best shot. Although each of the top 4 has an issue or 2 of their own, it is hard to imagine a player outside the fab 4 picking up this title.

Quarter 1: Novak won his 1st match quite comfortably, but his draw is not straightforward going ahead. He faces tricky Stepanek, who beat Murray at queens, in the 2nd. Thereafter he could get Haase or Simon and then potentially Tsonga in the 4th. Though Stepanek is dangerous on quicker surfaces, he has a poor record vs novak. Tsonga is struggling against Melzer and might not even make the 4th round. If Tsonga trips, we could see Youzhny facing Nole in the 4th.
The 2nd half of the quarter is loaded with big hitters in Berdych, Gulbis and Cilic. Gulbis played well in French open and might just make the quarters, but he might even lose in the 2nd to Stakhovsky. Cilic is a good grass court player and Berdych is pretty consistent everywhere. It is a tough pick but I pick Gulbis to face Nole. Irrespective of who he meets, Nole should get through comfortably.
semifinalist: Djokovic
matches to watch: Gulbis-Stakhovsky. Berdych-Tomic (both round 2)

Quarter 2: Murray starts as defending champion only the 2nd time in his career at a slam. With the monkey off his back, he can be more relaxed. He can afford it even more given his cakewalk draw. He should sleepwalk to the quarters. I don’t expect bautista-Agut or Fognini to pose any serious threat.
In the other half, Ferrer could face some challenge from Baghdatis in the 3rd, meanwhile Dimitrov his scheduled 4th round opponent, who won Queens title last week, had a terrible looking draw having to face Harrison, Thiem, Dolgopolov in 1st 3 rounds. He dealt with harrison rather comfortably and Thiem was ‘upset’ by Seville. After making the 1st QF at AO and a letdown in RG, Dimitrov came back strong to win queens. I think he could make his 2nd QF at Wimbledon beating Ferrer.
Murray-Dimitrov could be interesting given that Dimitrov has beaten Murray once, but expect Murray to count on his experience and grass court prowess to overpower the young challenger, losing not more than a set.
Semifinalist: Murray
matches to watch: Ferrer-Baghdatis, Dimitrov-Dolgopolov ( both 3rd round)

Quarter 3: Federer, arguably the best grass court player of all time, has a decent draw. He starts with Lorenzi, could meet Benneteau in the 2nd, Granollers or Mahut in 3rd and Janowicz, hHewitt or Robredo in the 4th. Benneateau has slumped from his highs of 2012-13, where he challenged Roger (and nearly derailed his 2012 Wimbledon campaign), Janowicz has incredibly fallen from the high of last wimbledon where he reached the semis, Hewitt is not getting any younger and though Robredo beat Roger at USOpen, I don’t see a repeat on grass.
What makes Roger’s draw especially good is the fact that he has drawn another off-form guy in Wawrinka in the quarters. Wawrinka has failed to make the 2nd round in Wimbledon in last 3 attempts and though he made the semis at queens, he was blown off by Dimitrov. Stan does have some dangerous names in his section with Yen-Hsun Lu, who is no slouch on grass, in 2nd, Tursunov in 3rd, Lopez, Isner or Falla in 4th. I think Lopez, who is playing especially well almost winning queens and winning Eastbourne, is likely to come through, provided he has not already exhausted himself.
Lopez is not known for his big match temperament and Roger should be able to navigate past him after some early scares.
Semifinlist: Federer.
Early round match to watch: Hewitt-Janowicz should be a crowd pleaser.

Quarter 4: Rafael nadal, inarguably the greatest clay court champ, is the biggest wildcard this wimbledon. He has lost 2 of his last 3 at wimbledon (3 of 4 if you count 2011 finals), lost his last 3 grass matches, he has a potentially difficult 1st week with Klizan in 1st, Paire or Rosol in 2nd and ever dangerous Karlovic in the 3rd. He could face Monfils or Gasquet in the 4th. Klizan has done little of note, Paire is returning from injury and lightning does not strike at the same place twice (Rosol & 2nd round). Karlovic has had little success vs nadal  & Gasquet or Monfils don’t have the mentality.
Raonic is the next higher seed in this quarter and given his QF run at RG, many are tipping a quarterfinal run for Raonic at Wimbledon as well. Though his game should ideally suit grass, he has found movement on grass difficult. The other likely contenders for the quarterfinal spot are Nishikori & Kohlschreiber. Kohlschriber is a capable grass courter but he has had his ups & downs, Nishikori meanwhile is having a breakthrough year and was red hot in clay season before injuring himself. I think he has had enough rest and his draw does not pose a serious threat initially. He has a good record vs Raonic and in my mind is a favourite to reach the quarters.
Nishikori played Nadal extremely close in AO, was winning in Madrid before he injured himself, he also has wins over Federer and Djokovic. so he is not intimidated by big names. The question mark should be his fitness and grass is a surface which can be forgiving in this regard. The matches tend to be quicker and less exhausting. This should aid Nishikori. Nadal has sounded confident in his press briefings, but also seemed sapped after RG final. Does he ally his fears of grass court, which are not ideal for his knees or preserves his body for the remaining season by staying safe? The question is difficult to answer. So I pick Nishikori, knowing fully well that it is not impossible that Nadal can win not only the quarter but the whole thing if he gets into a roll.
Semifinalist: Nishikori
Early round match to watch: Nadal-Rosol isn’t likely to re-enact the drama of 2012, but would be fun nevertheless.

semi 1: Murray vs Djokovic. Murray has beaten Novak in straights the last 2 times they played on grass. It is diffcult to predict as Murray has not yet reached the same level after his surgery last year. Novak, on the other hand would be very determined to get this one before his wedding. It is to be seen how well he has recovered from his wrist injury as well from the mental scars of the French open loss. It is a toss up to predict this at the start & I would pick Nole for probably having the higher motivation.

Semi 2: Nishikori vs Federer. Nishikori has not backed big wins well in his career. If he reaches the semi beating Nadal, I don’t see him having the emotional energy to win this semi. Federer would be highly motivated and should come through in 3 or 4 sets.

Final: I believe, body permitting, we are likely to see Federer give a real shot at this title. He knows its one of his last chance of a slam, and like 2012 Olympics, I think he will give it his all. Novak won’t be lacking in will either and this could come down to who uses the conditions better. I think Federer does that. Call me delusional, may be, but I believe Federer has 1 slam in him and if so this is the most likely.
Champion: Federer.
   

Wimbledon seedings demystified..

The Wimbledon seedings were announced on Wednesday and many of casual tennis fans would be surprised to see Novak as the no.1 seed. Moreover, some might even complain of favouritism in making Murray the no.3 seed, swapping place with Stan Wawrinka. So is the wimbledon seeding discretionary at the whim of the seeding committee? And the answer is not any more. It used to be that way till 90s. But starting 2001, Wimbledon has adopted a standard seeding formula, which gives more weightage to grass court performance over the last 2 years.

The wimbledon seeding formula states: ATP ranking points + grass court points from the last 12 months + 75 percent of grass court points from the best result on grass 12 months before that). Explaining the formula in terms of the top 4 + Murray to get their respective points:

Nadal who has only couple of wins in last 2 years on grass adds nothing for last year (1st round loss in Wimbledon & no other GC tournament). He adds 75% of 60 points from Halle QF exit in 2012 making it 45 points.
So his total points are: 12500+0+45=12545

Novak was a runner up last year and a semifinalist in 2012 (his best result in 2012, he also finished 4th in Olympics but that has less ATP points). So he adds 1200+75% of 720 points to his atp ranking points: 12330+1200+540=14070 taking him ahead of Nadal.

Wawrinka lost in first round last year and lost in semis of queens, so his only result carrying points in last 12 months is 90 points from queens. In the 12 months prior to last wimbledon he did not win a match on grass so he adds only 90 points to his ranking: 5420+90 = 5510

Federer lost in 2nd round last year, so his best result in last 12 months is the Halle trophy getting him 250 points, he also gets 45 points for Wimbledon 2nd round.. In the previous 12 months his best results was wimbledon winner, so he gets 75% of 2000= 1500 points. So his total is 4945 (current ranking points)+295+1500=6740  enough to take him ahead of Wawrinka.

Murray has a wimbledon win and a queens 3rd round to his credit adding 2000+20 points. His best result in the previous 12 months was wimbledon runner up getting him 1200 points (He won the olympics gold but that carried 750 points only). So his total ponts are: 4680+2020+900=7600 taking him ahead of both Roger and stan in wimbledon seedings making him the biggest gainer of the seeding system.

Likewise, the other major gainers  are Jerzy Janowicz (semifinalist 2013), Tsonga (past semi & quarterfinalist), Grigor Dimitrov (Queens winner) and Kohlschreiber. Major loser is obviously Wawrinka, but it is justified considering his record on grass.

So the seeding put the big 4 as the top 4 and despite nadal losing his last 3 grass court matches, no one will complain with the seedings. Nole gets no.1 seeding on his worst surface, but given his consistency it is hard to argue against. The 5-8 seeds look vulnerable as seeds 9-12, whom they will likely meet in pre-quarters are all dangerous. I can imagine at least a couple of Wawrinka, Ferrer, Berdych and Raonic losing to the likes of Gulbis, Dimitrov, Isner and Nishikori.
Potentially dangerous seeds in 13-32 are: Tsonga(14), Verdasco (18), Lopez (19), Kohlschriber (22) Cilic (26) and Karlovic (29). More importantly the latter 2 could meet any of top 4 in 3rd round where they can really cause some trouble on fresh grass.

Other potentially dangerous unseeded players include veterans Stepanek & Hewitt, and up & coming youngsters Dominic Thiem and Dustin Brown (who blew away nadal in Halle).

The draw comes out today & for once I won’t mind if I see Nadal-Murray slated to meet in the semis. I have a feeling though this time they could put Roger in nadal’s half.

Del Potro shocked, Federer-Tomic preview

Honestly never saw this one coming… trashes my draw prediction.. Will need to have a separate week 2 preview. Predicting sports is sometimes difficult 🙂

Tomic has been cocky in his press conferences, his confidence mostly soaring on the basis of his Hopman cup win over Novak and 1st tour title. So let us analyze how he can hurt Federer.

Tomic is serving well, but Federer has handled big servers extremely well during the course of his career. Still a great 1st serve percentage (70%) would be the key. Can he hit through Federer, like Berdych did in US Open 2012? Difficult to do, particularly on the relatively slower AO courts (some players have suggested the courts are playing a touch faster this year)

Tomic may appear slow but he rarely is out of position, but when comparing him to top guys, I do not think he is capable of playing defense like the players who trouble Federer. On this day he has to run like a rabbit and retrieve everything. Can he do it? I have my doubts.

Another tactic which Tomic uses well vs. rest of the field is to use his slice to offset the opponent, doing that would make him fall straight in the hands of Roger, as Roger’s slice is excellent as well & his court awareness is probably the best in history. If anything, Tomic has to employ a lot of variety and use slice as a surprise weapon and not the primary weapon.

All said, in order for Tomic to have a chance, I think Roger needs to be off his game a bit. Given the pre-match hype, I expect him to be dialled in from the go. He might have some lapses, but should prevail in 4.